中国气象学会气象青年科技交流会暨2021年青年科学家论坛

This paper analyses the contribution of air-sea interaction to the predictable patterns of geopotential height at 850 hPa over Asian-Australian monsoon region (AAM) in a coupled model (CM) form Beijing Climate Center and its atmospheric components model (AM). In the observation, the first two EOF modes both feature an anomalous center over the western North Pacific (WNP), The difference is that the large-value center of the first mode (WPM) is located in the western Pacific Ocean, and the large-value center of the second mode (NPM) is located in the northern Pacific Ocean. The MSN EOF method is used to extract the predictable patterns of the two models. Both models capture the dominant modes of observed patterns. But the first predictable pattern of models is strongly influenced by the central tropical Pacific SSTA and does not agree with the observation, which results in variance of the first predictable pattern is obviously larger than that of the observation; the second mode in the observation has a significant correlation with the air-sea interaction in the warm pool region, and the couple model is better than atmospheric model to simulation the second predictable pattern. For the AAM region, the air-sea interaction in the warm pool region and the SSTA of the eastern equatorial Pacific are important predictable sources, and the coupled model has greater potential predictability in AAM region.
 

Predictable Pattern,Asian-Australian Monsoon,Predictability